MB's Weekly Selection
To accompany the Monthly Barometer, my selection of and reflection on 5 macro themes, plus some insightful articles to help you make sense of what's going on and get an inkling of what might be next
(1) THE FUTURE OF TECH; (2) AMERICA: MOVING TOWARDS AUTOCRACY, OR NOT? (3) WORLD WAR OR WORLD AT WAR? (4) CURIOSITY AS AN ANTIDOTE TO UNCERTAINTY; (5) MAGA AND WELLNESS
THE FUTURE OF TECH - Zillions of analyses are devoted to this subject, looking at how tech innovation might affect the economy, the environment, geopolitics, society and tech itself of course. In an important article (“The Technopolar Paradox - The Frightening Fusion of Tech Power and State Power”, behind a paywall that may require prior registration), Ian Bremmer argues that the future of tech will be characterised by a “messy hybrid” situation shaped by two key players. (1) On one side, a technopolar US where a handful of tech firms enjoy extraordinary power and (2) on the other, a state-controlled China, where tech firms serve the political objectives of the Communist Party. Everybody else, including Europe that aspires to digital sovereignty, will be caught in-between the two, unable to broker a balance between them. The technopolar and state-controlled models differ in ideology, but converge in practice, prioritizing power, efficiency, and control over consent, accountability, and freedom. Bremmer’s depressing conclusion: “It seems as if Big Tech’s eclipse of democracy has already begun.”
IS AMERICA MOVING TOWARDS AUTOCRACY, OR NOT? A fundamental question for many observers and investors. In the camp of those who believe it is, Levitsky, Way and Ziblatt (three political scientists who study how democracies morph into autocracies) propose in this NYT op-ed (gifted) what they call “a simple metric: the cost of opposing the government.” By this measure, the United States is in real trouble. As they put it: “When citizens must think twice about criticizing or opposing the government because they could credibly face government retribution, they no longer live in a full democracy.” They consider that “American society’s response to this authoritarian offensive has been underwhelming,” but offer hope: “pro-democracy forces have successfully resisted or reversed backsliding in recent years in Brazil, Poland, Slovakia, South Korea and elsewhere.”
WORLD WAR OR WORLD AT WAR? Nobody can dispute that the rules-based world order created in 1945 is in retreat and violence is on the rise. “Are we heading for another world war – or has it already started” (free access) asks Patrick Wintour, the diplomatic correspondent of the Guardian. Some people he interviewed for this article argue (like Fiona Hill) that the third world war has already started, “if only we would recognise it”. Others are more circumspect, like David Miliband (a former UK foreign secretary) saying: “The problem is that it’s much more clear what we are inflecting from – a world in which the US was the anchor of the global system – but it’s not clear what we’re inflecting to. I know there’s a lot of talk about the idea of a multipolar world reflecting a redistribution of the balance of power, but I find that concept conveying too much stability, too much security.” We may not yet be in a world war, but in a world at war, as Wintour points out and documents in this article.
CURIOSITY AS AN ANTIDOTE TO UNCERTAINTY - Ken Robinson (an expert on education, creativity and innovation) once said that “curiosity is the engine of achievement.” No doubt! Intellectual curiosity makes our minds always on the lookout for new ideas and thus offers new possibilities and brings excitement. Progress in neuroscience now shows that curiosity is also a ‘tool’ or mindset that helps reframe uncertainty as an invitation rather than a threat. In this article (metered paywall), a neuroscientist explains how curiosity rewires our brain for change. It kicks into gear the brain’s dopaminergic system (so makes us feel good), and helps us learn more efficiently, enhancing hippocampal activity and boosting our capacity to form and retain new memories. Most importantly, it promotes neuroplasticity, the brain’s ability to rewire itself in response to new experiences. What not to like about this? Curiosity as not only an antidote to fear and uncertainty, but also a motor for better brain health. For a most inspiring talk about education and curiosity, watch THIS with Ken Robinson in 2006 (a 19 min video).
MAGA AND WELLNESS - Since the pandemic, the wellness industry (a global USD6tr business, according to the Global Wellness Institute, growing at more than 7% per year) has been infested by all sorts of snake oil salesmen and now risks becoming a “tech-bro playground of biohacking, testosterone stacks, and plasma swaps”. This phenomenon is particularly marked in the US, where Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an anti-vaxxer conspiracist named Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, is promoting policies that pander towellness culture, gutting in the process health funding and research and encouraging fringe policies with the aim of “Making America Healthy Again.” As this article (metered paywall) explains, not everything Kennedy and people in his orbit promote is pseudoscience (even though much of it is). The bottom line: when government, wellness, and ideology blur and everyone’s selling “health,” “who’s actually protecting it?”